Mortgage Market Update (7/1/24)

Welcome to Homeseed’s Mortgage Market Update, where we dive into the latest trends, insights, and changes shaping the dynamic landscape of the housing and lending industries.

Mortgage Rate Trends & Forecasts

  • Mortgage rates are higher week-over-week despite lower inflation from the PCE report last Friday, along with weaker manufacturing data from today.
  • Market experts believe that bonds, which drive mortgage rates, are are reacting to concerns about a potential GOP sweep in the government, which could have negative implications for Treasury supply.
  • Looking ahead, we might see increased rate volatility during this election year as we approach the end of 2024.

Home Values Continue to Increase

  • Two of the most notable home price indices, Case-Shiller and FHFA, show that home values continue to rise on a year-over-year basis in their most recent reports.
  • Both Case-Shiller and FHFA reported year-over-year gains of 6.3%.
  • Strong demand and tight supply will likely push home values higher and allow homeowners to build wealth through equity.

Existing Home Sales

  • Inventory increased 6.7% month-over-month in May 2024 and is up 18.5% year-over-year.
  • Homes were on the market for a national average of 24 days.
  • Given the demand and low inventory, 30% of homes sold above the list price.
  1. RATES MOVE HIGHER – Concerns over a potential sweep by the GOP in the upcoming elections could have negative implications for Treasury supply, which have driven up mortgage rates.
    https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/…
  2. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES – Tomorrow’s PCE report is expected to show the lowest core reading since March 2021.
    https://www.cnbc.com/…
  3. USING AI FOR APPRAISALS – The CFPB approved a new rule that aims to govern how AI is used to estimate the value of a home.
    https://www.housingwire.com/…
  4. WHEN WILL HOME PRICES GO DOWN – Six economists weigh in on the likelihood of home prices going down.
    https://www.morningstar.com/…

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